We’re Still Outraged Over our 700k Parade Crowd Estimate So We Reached Out to an Expert For Help; His Answers Will Surprise You
The 2017-18 NFL season illustrated week in and week out that the Philadelphia Eagles have the best fan base in the entire league. Before the year, it was fair to “embrace debate” on which team had the most dedicated fans. But, after taking over the LA stadiums TWICE, starting the underdog mask trend, outnumbering Patriots fans at the Super Bowl by a wide margin and just flat out bullying Vikings fans, it was evident that Philly fans took the crown. When the overflow of passion of this Eagles fan base was finally rewarded by the city’s first Super Bowl, the culmination of great fan moments was set to see its grand finale in the form of a victory parade. The number of Philly faithful set to flood into the city for this crowning moment was bound to set records that overwhelmed other cities crowds. And then, some asshole in England spread the fake news rumor that only 700,000 people showed up, deflating and embarrassing all of us in attendance.
The numbers just didn’t make sense. If 2 million people showed up to the Phillies parade, how could this 700,000 number be accurate? This most recent parade was a much more anticipated event and the parade route was longer, thus allowing for a larger attendance. Quite frankly, this estimate was BS and we needed to get to the bottom of it, so we reached out to an expert for help.
Steve Doig is a professor at Arizona State University with experience in estimating crowd size. He was referenced when comparing the inauguration crowd sizes of our two most recent Presidents when that was a controversy, about 700 controversies ago. We reached out to him and hit him with a few questions regarding the Eagles parade and his answers were interesting to say the least. Here are the initial questions:
1) Is there a possibility that the given 700,000 number could be accounting for just the Art Museum crowd where the speeches are given and not the ENTIRE parade route?2) Due to the length of the parade route, is it tough to even get an accurate estimate?3) How does estimating crowd sizes of parades such as this differ from estimating crowd sizes at events like the presidential inaugurations?4) Like you mentioned in your previous e-mail (mentioned it was a tough science), what is the best way to form an educated guess in regards to total crowd size?5) In your own opinion, based off just the crowd shots I supplied plus any other information you have, does 700,000 seem like an accurate number? (I know it is probably tough to tell based of such little given info but just a rough guess)
Without knowing the methodologies of the 700k estimate and the 2 million estimate, I can’t judge which one is more credible. Based on the spotty history of crowd estimation everywhere, my guess would be that neither one is credible.
But let’s do a quick reality check. Google Earth shows that the parade route along Broad st. is about 3.3 miles long. The width is about 100 feet from storefront to storefront, but the street itself where the parade is on is about 60 feet, so that’s about 40 feet of crowd width counting both sides. So the total area where the crowd could stand is 3.3*5280*40 = 696,960 sq feet. Call it 700,000 square feet. A tightly-packed crowd where people are pretty much shoulder to shoulder and back to front has a density of about 5 sqft per person. So 700000/5 equals room for about 140,000 people. The Franklin Parkway route from City Hall to the Art Museum area is about 1.4 miles long and a bit wider, so let’s call that room for another 100,000. So my rough estimate, assuming the entire route is packed at that tight density, would be a generous 300,000 people.
So that’s how to do a reality-based estimate of crowd size. Get the area that the crowd is in, and use a realistic density estimate of square feet per person. (One square feet per person is NOT realistic.) You can do that whether it is a crowd gathered in a particular space like the National Mall, or along a parade route.
Bottom line: Unless there were widespread reports of Eagles fans being suffocated and trampled in the crowd, as has happened in religious festivals in some countries, then the estimate of 700,000 (much less the earlier one of 2 million) is not credible. And before people start treating that estimate as an attack on civic pride, I will gently point out that 300k is a great crowd. It only looks puny when it is being compared to ridiculous wild-ass guesses made for past events.
Follow- up question: Does this mean that parade estimates such as the Chicago Cubs parade which drew “5 million” people, would be wildly inaccurate?
Yes, that Cubs estimate is ridiculous. The population of the entire city of Chicago is about 2.7 million. So not only would they all have to show up for the parade, but each one would bring a friend from out of town??? Didn’t happen.
Re thinking the number would be larger than the “official” estimate, it is a rule of human nature that the number supplied by organizers of an event will always be larger — usually way larger — than a reality-based estimate will be.
Well, I am disappointed. I figured reaching out would guarantee and solidify an estimate in the millions, 3 million at the very least. Instead, we ended up going the other direction. To top it off, not only was our number not accurate but every large parade including the Phillies in 2008, was massively overestimated.
While it is hard to argue with someone who hit me with some serious mathematics and has experience estimating crowds, but there are definitely some holes in that number. As you can imagine, crowd science is far from an exact science. Doig took the square footage of the parade route in order to get his number. The problem with that is it does not account for overflow in certain areas that stretched beyond the parade route. At places like City Hall, Logan Square, and even near the Walnut/Locust area, you could not use size of the street in order to gain an accurate number. The area on Pattison, where the parade first started, also did not seem to be accounted for but contained thousands of people. At the end of the day, it will be tough to ever get an accurate number of people in attendance but I know in my heart of hearts the number we got is wrong. In today’s society, we put too much emphasis on analytics and not enough on the eye test. If you were there, you know the truth and it can’t be taken from you. There were 3 million people at least and no mathematical method can say otherwise.
